"It is impossible to make someone understand something which their salary depends on them not understanding -Upton Sinclair"
Not everyone is oblivious to the zombie-like economic activity of course, such as those whom it is actually affecting on a daily basis like anyone not included in the deluded ranks of elite uber-billionaires or the media meat puppets they control. Small business owners whom I have the pleasure of working with daily already know the score and are trying to deal with increased costs, short supply and dwindling demand. Companies like the Window manufacturing plant I spoke with last week who is watching their revenue crash to levels not seen since the COVID madness and struggling to get loan approvals which would have been automatic just 12 months ago.
While the media Pundits and "experts" drone on about what the Fed might do with interest rates, it seems like window dressing to me compared to the forward indicators I rely upon to understand what's actually coming. Just like Bernie's corpse appeared "fine" with his sunglasses and drink in hand we are treated to a banquet of statistics and "market" pricing which are radically disconnected with real molecule-based reality.
Here are just some of the glaring disparities I'm currently watching which will profoundly affect small business owners in the near future:
ENERGY: Oil and LNG prices in the futures contact markets aren't reflecting actual physical demand and supply. The current price of around $70 per barrel is not a price anyone who actually wants to purchase a barrel of oil needs to pay. According to shipping supply agents in global markets, anyone trying to fill an oil container ship has to pay nearly twice that number to get real Oil.
"The gap between the price the world sees and the price the world pays is $37 to $50 per barrel. Before the war, this gap was less than one dollar."
Strategic reserves are at extreme lows pointing to a severe shortage just a few weeks away. The reports of a "flood" of oil transiting the strait of Hormuz are misleading (lies) since the roughly 18 million barrels which have actually transited are all Iranian ships headed to China where the Oil is offloaded. That is to say, none of the supposed "Oil flood" is headed our way and there are no tankers currently in US ports which could re-supply our extremely low and dwindling reserves.
To make matters worse, the existing reserves are being sold at make-believe pricing conjured up through paper contract manipulation just to keep the price at the pump artificially suppressed.
"This is the physical market telling the financial market that the crisis is worse than the screen implies. Refiners in South Korea, Japan, India, and China are bidding up cargoes because actual barrels available for loading in the Gulf are scarce, insurable routes are shrinking, and every cargo near Hormuz carries war, mine, and blockade risk that no futures contract captures."
"The basis blowout is already inside the American economy. Diesel at $5.64 per gallon is priced off physical crude, not futures. Trucking rates at $2.97 per mile are priced off diesel. The March CPI energy component, up 10.9 percent in a single month, is priced off what refiners actually paid for barrels, not what traders bet on screens. Every inflation model calibrated to Brent or WTI futures is systematically underestimating the cost passthrough from this war by $37 to $50 per barrel. The Fed watches futures. Refiners buy physical. The gap between the two is the gap between what the Fed thinks inflation is and what inflation actually is."
Truckers, manufacturers, distributors, construction companies and so many more small business owners are directly in the path of this oncoming runaway train but, the party at Bernie's beach house rages on!
HELIUM:
I admit I wasn't aware how important Helium is to our world but, apparently, you can't make computer chips without it and nearly half the world's supply comes from the Persian gulf!
"Price movement: The shock hit fast. “The spot price for helium has moved up pretty dramatically. I would say 70 to 100 percent in a week,” said Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting and a 30-year veteran of the industry. Bank of America put the initial surge at 40%, while other estimates put prices at between 70% and 100% higher in some cases within a little more than a week.
The situation had an additional physical complication that other commodities don’t face. Roughly one-third of the world’s cryogenic helium ISO containers were stranded in or around Qatar. Repositioning this equipment after the conflict would require a minimum of three months, creating a supply gap that outlasts the conflict itself. Liquefied helium evaporates within roughly 45 days, meaning stranded inventory cannot be held for later delivery. Ships rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope face an additional 3,500 nautical miles, extending transit times by 10 to 14 days, during which liquid helium experiences boil-off losses of 15–20% of cargo volume.
By June 20, prices remained substantially elevated with no clear return path, because the damage to Ras Laffan is physical, not merely logistical. Even after Iran and the United States announced a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed due to overlapping blockades, meaning that even if production restarted, Qatari helium had no viable sea route to market. The structural problem persists through the MOU period.
Given Helium’s critical role in the production of computer chips, the price of computers and smart phones is soaring. Apple, for example, recently announced significant price hikes for the iPhone 17 Pro Max (+$200) and the 16-inch MacBook Pro (+$300)."
SULPHUR:
This is a big one because Sulphur is a important input material to make fertilizer which is critical to our food supply. A prolonged shortage could, and probably already has, severely disrupted our exceedingly fragile just-in-time grocery food supply model. When shelves go empty people notice.
"The geographic exposure: Ships moving through the strait carry 24% of the world’s sulfur, a feedstock for sulfuric acid used to make metals like nickel and copper, as well as fertilizer and household cleaning products. The Middle East accounts for roughly 24% of global sulfur production and approximately 50% of global seaborne sulfur trade, all of which transits the Strait of Hormuz.
Price movement: Since the start of Operation Epic Fury, the price of sulfur has nearly doubled. Gulf states typically provide 45% of the seaborne sulfur trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran’s blockade caused a 30% price spike by halting half of the global supply, creating bottlenecks in mineral extraction. Sulfur shortages were already leading to 20–30% output reductions for critical mineral miners.
The downstream cascade was severe. The World Bank noted that sulfur prices had doubled since January by April 2026, and that China’s move to tighten exports — in response to its own domestic shortfall as Persian Gulf imports dried up — added upward pressure on DAP (diammonium phosphate) prices. China banned sulfuric acid exports, impacting among other things copper production in Chile, which imported sulfuric acid as a consumable."
There are plenty of other signs that things are not what the media talking heads say they are. There is evidence that many businesses are suffering the consequences of the economic conditions going on outside Bernie's beach house party. Recently I saw that Hooters was closing locations in area's where activity is slow reflecting a desire on the part of even longstanding businesses that have a reliable customer base to cut back. You know it's bad when sales at Hooters are sagging (sorry, I couldn't help myself lol)
"In addition to shuttering its holdout location in Colonie, N.Y., just outside Albany, Hooters also recently closed its final three Massachusetts locations in Dedham, Saugus and West Springfield. And in March it said goodbye to its final locations in Connecticut and Minnesota, the latter of which was located in the Mall of America.
Technically, it was not the prescriptive mandates of virtue-signaling womynists that drove the chain under, but rather a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing last year.
It cited inflation and other issues as the reason for sagging sales."
Clearly, reports of robust economic activity are not supported. (Sorry, I really can't help myself from making bad puns. I need help)
So, none of the obvious risks facing business owners are being priced into the economy as both businesses and consumers act as if nothing's wrong carelessly wandering through the party at Bernie's beach house. The media says we're winning the war with Iran even while it is Iran who clearly controls the straight of Hormuz and all the critical materials that we need to transit through it. Meanwhile, we deplete our Oil reserves, weapon systems and critical mineral stockpiles as if cheap replacements are standing by while the rest of the world (like China) restricts exports even further. You don't need a degree in economics to see the problem here. None of the talking heads can tell a plausible story about how these shortages will be replaced at current "prices" if at all or how this won't dramatically increase inflation. Business owners are feeling the effects right now, no waiting. Lenders are acutely aware about what is happening because we look at financial reports and bank statements. It is imperative that business owners seek information from independent, un-biased sources because when the SHTF, the Muppets at FOX and CNBC will all say "who could have ever seen this coming!?" Just watch.
Here are a few articles and links I found interesting this week:
"Financial instruments traded on the Intercontinental Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange for future delivery. They are not barrels of oil. They are bets on barrels of oil."
"While the world markets remain fixated on oil passing through the Strait, they are ignoring the profound impact of the halt in the shipment of Helium, Sulfur and Urea. The global economy is already experiencing the pain of the reduction in the supply of these commodities and the world will experience a global inflationary shock."
"Empires almost never notice the precise moment when they begin to lose control of themselves"
" Readers should be aware that the reality described below reflects a widening gap between measured economic performance and lived financial conditions across large segments of the population."
